The principal source is the Fairmodel Workbook.

Fair, Ray, 1984 Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models Harvard. This book, providing detailed description of an early version of the model, is on 3- day reserve in the UM-D library.

A copy of a previous version of the Workbook for the Fairmodel has also been put on reserve in the UM-D library. This may be of use to those looking for suggestions for a broader variety of exercises which can be performed on this model.

Economic Outlook USA a quarterly journal published by the pros at UM-AA. For more information on their work, go directly to the RSQE homepage. A copy of the equations of the model, which will be placed on reserve at the UM-D library, under the name "Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model."

Other Models:

1. Duesenberry, James, et al. The Brookings Quarterly Econometric Model of the United States 1965. There is also a Further Results published in 1969
   
2. Lawrence Klein and A. Goldberger, An Econometric Model of the United States 1929-1952 Amsterdam, 1955
   
3. Fromm, Gary 1968?, Policy Simulations with an Econometric Model UM-D HC106.5F78
   
4. Hickman, B. Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior UM-D HC106.3C714 v.36
   
5. Nelson, Charles 1972 "The Prediction Performanc of the FRB-MIT-PENN Model of the U.S> Economy," American Economic Review pp. 902-917
   
6. The model developed at UM-AA has fewer recent published versions. Try Saul Hymans, The DHL-III Quarterly Econometric Model of the U.S. Economy 1970 (at UM-AA); their model for the State of Michigan is Shapiro and Fulton, A Regional econometric forecasting system...Michigan also at UM-AA
   

For comparisons of different models:

1. Fromm and Klein, "A Comparison of 11 Econometric Models of the U.S.," American Economic Review May, 1973
   
2. J. Eggert, "Consensus Forecasting," Challenge July, 1987
   
3. Parke, "Macroeconometric Model Comparison and Evaluation Techniques," Journal of Applied Econometrics, April, 1987
   
4. Fair and Shiller, 1990, "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review June
   
5. Fair, Ray, "Testing Macroeconometric Models," and John B. Taylor, "The Use of the New Macroeconometrics for Policy Formulation," both in American Economic Review, May, 1993
   
6. L. Klein 1991 Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models Oxford
   
7. Ralph Bryant et al. Evaluating Policy Regimes Brookings, also, Empirical Macroeconomics for Interdependent Economies
   

Other Assorted:

1. Victor Zarnozitz, 1992 Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators and Forecasting Chicago
   
2. Leitch and Tanner, 1995 "Professional Economic Forecasts: Are They Worth Their Costs? Journal of Forecasting Vol. 14, pp. 143-57
   

Heavy Theory Department:

1. Robert Lucas, "Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique," in K. Brunner and A. Meltzer, eds. The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets, Amsterdam, 1976
   
2. C. Sims 1980 "Macroeconomics and Reality,"Econometrica pp. 1-48.
   
3. Fair, Ray, 1994 Testing Macroeconometric Models Harvard. [Note: this is reviewed by R. Coen in the September, 1996 Journal of Economic Literature and by A. Cappelen in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 1996, pp. 1809-1813]
   
4. Taylor, John, 1993 Macroeconomic Policy in a World Economy Norton
   
5. the Special Issue on Econometric Forecasts of the Journal of Applied Econometrics September, 1996.

return to: Syllabus

Professor Twomey can be reached at 313-593-5176 (o), 313-995-1907 (h), or by clicking mtwomey@umd.umich.edu